Bratvold, R.B. and Begg, S.H. 2009. Decision-Making under Uncertainty.
Dallas: SPE.
Bratvold, R.B. and Horne, R.N. 1992.
An Analytical Solution to a Multiple-Region
Moving Boundary Problem: Nonisothermal Water Injection Into Oil Reservoirs
The Mathematics of Oil Recovery, ed. P.R. King. Oxford Clarendon Press.
Willigers, B.J.A. and Bratvold, R.B.
2009. Valuing
Oil and Gas Options by Least-Squares Monte Carlo Simulation. SPE Projects, Facilities & Construction.
Bratvold, R.B., Bickel, E.J., and
Lohne, H.P. 2009. Value of Information: The
Past, Present, and Future. SPE
Reservoir Evaluation and Engineering.
Bickel, E.J. and Bratvold, R.B.
2008. Decision Making in the Oil
& Gas Industry: From Blissful Ignorance to Uncertainty - Induced Confusion.
ENERGY EXPLORATION & EXPLOITATION
26(5), 311-325.
Bratvold, R.B. and Begg, S.H. 2008.
I would rather be vaguely right than
precisely wrong: A new approach to decision making in the petroleum exploration
and production industry. AAPG
Bulletin 92(10), 1373–1392.
Al-Harthy, M., Begg, S., and
Bratvold, R.B. 2007. Copulas: A New
Technique to Model Dependence in Petroleum Decision Making. J. Pet. Sci. Eng. 57(1-2), 195-208.
Al-Harthy, M., Khurana, A., Begg,
S., and Bratvold, R.B. 2006. Investment Decisions, Systems Approach vs.
Sequential Approach: Do Functional Dependencies And Interactions Matter? Australian Petroleum Production and
Exploration Association (APPEA) Journal 46(1), 511 - 524.
Begg, S. and Bratvold, R. 2004. The
Value of Flexibility. Southern China Oil
& Gas Journal 17(4).
Bratvold,
R.B., Holden, L., Svanes, T., and Tyler, K. 1995. STORM: Integrated 3D Stochastic
Reservoir Modeling Tool for Geologists and Reservoir Engineers. SPE Computer Applications 7(3), 58 – 68.
Bratvold, R.B. and Horne, R.N. 1990.
Analysis
of Pressure Falloff Tests Following Cold Water Injection. SPE Formation Evaluation September, 203 - 302.
Larsen, L. and Bratvold, R.B. 1994.
Effects of Propagating Fractures on Pressure-Transient Injection and Falloff
Data. SPE Formation Evaluation.
Reynolds, A.C., Bratvold, R.B., and
Ding, W. 1987. Semilog
Analysis of Gas Well Drawdown and Buildup Data. SPE Formation Evaluation December,
657 - 670.
Willigers, B.J.A., Bratvold, R.B.,
and Hausken, K. 2009. A Game Theoretic Approach to Conflicting and Evolving
Stakeholder Preferences in the E&P Industry. Paper SPE 124178 to be
presented at the SPE Annual Technical Conference and Exhibition, New Orleans,
Louisiana, 4-7 October.
Jafarizadeh, B. and Bratvold, R.B.
2009. Taking Real Options into the Real World: Asset Valuation through Option
Simulation. Paper SPE 124488 to be presented at the SPE Annual Technical
Conference and Exhibition, New Orleans, Louisiana, 4-7 October.
Rajaieyamchee, M.A. and Bratvold,
R.B. 2009. Real-time Decision Support in Drilling Operations using Bayesian
Decision Networks. Paper SPE 124247 to be presented at the SPE Annual Technical
Conference and Exhibition, New Orleans, Louisiana, 4-7 October.
Jafarizadeh, B. and Bratvold, R.B.
2009. Real Options Analysis in Petroleum Exploration and Production: A New
Paradigm in Investment Analysis. Paper SPE 121426 presented at the SPE
Europec/EAGE Annual Conference and Exhibition, Amsterdam, The Netherlands, 8-11
June.
Jafarizadeh, B. and Bratvold, R.B.
2009. Strategic Decision Making in the Digital Oil Field. Paper SPE 123213
presented at the SPE Digital Energy Conference and Exhibition, Houston, Texas,
7 - 8 April.
Arild, Ø., Lohne, H.P., and
Bratvold, R.B. 2008. A Monte Carlo Approach to Value of Information Evaluation.
Paper SPE IPTC 11969 presented at the International Petroleum Technology
Conference, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, 3 - 5 December.
Begg, S.H. and Bratvold, R.B. 2008.
Systematic Prediction Errors in O&G Project and Portfolio Selection. Paper SPE
116525 presented at the SPE Annual Technical Conference and Exhibition, Denver,
Colorado, 21-24 September.
Willigers, B.J.A. and Bratvold, R.B.
2008. Valuing Oil and Gas Options by Least-Squares Monte Carlo Simulation.
Paper SPE 116026 presented at the SPE Annual Technical Conference and
Exhibition, Denver, Colorado, 21-24 September.
Fjellheim, R.A., Bratvold, R.B., and
Herbert, M.C. 2008. CODIO - Collaborative Decision-Making in Integrated
Operations. Paper SPE 111876 presented at the SPE Intelligent Energy Conference
and Exhibition, Amsterdam, The Netherlands, 25–27 February.
Sund, K.A. and Bratvold, R.B. 2008.
Integrated Operations: How Effective is the Current Relationship between
Operating Companies and Suppliers? Paper SPE 112180 presented at the SPE
Intelligent Energy Conference and Exhibition, Amsterdam, The Netherlands, 25–27
February.
Bratvold, R.B., Bickel, E.J., and
Lohne, H.P. 2007. Value of Information: The Past, Present, and Future. Paper
SPE 110378 presented at the SPE Annual Technical Conference and Exhibition,
Anaheim, California, 11-14 November.
Begg, S.H., Welsh, M.B., and
Bratvold, R.B. 2007. The impact of common biases on the value of O&G
investment decisions. Paper SPE 109610 presented at the SPE Annual Technical
Conference and Exhibition, Anaheim, California, 11-14 November 2007.
Bickel, E.J. and Bratvold, R.B.
2007. Decision Making in the Oil & Gas Industry: From Blissful Ignorance to
Uncertainty - Induced Confusion. Paper SPE 109610 presented at the SPE Annual
Technical Conference and Exhibition, Anaheim, California, 11-14 November 2007.
Welsh, M.B., Begg, S.H., and
Bratvold, R.B., Efficacy of bias
awareness in debiasing oil and gas judgments, in Proceedings of the 29th Annual Conference of the Cognitive Science
Society. 2007a. p. 1617 - 1652.
Welsh, M.B., Begg, S.H., and
Bratvold, R.B. 2007b. The impact of common biases on the value of O&G
investment decisions Paper SPE 110765 presented at the SPE Annual Technical
Conference and Exhibit, Anaheim, CA, 11-14 November.
Welsh, M.B., Begg, S.H., and
Bratvold, R.B. 2007c. Modeling the Economic Impact of Cognitive Biases on Oil
and Gas Decisions. Paper SPE 110765 presented at the SPE Annual Technical
Conference and Exhibit, Anaheim, CA, 11 - 14 November.
Bratvold, R.B. and Begg, S. 2006. Education
for the Real World: Equipping Petroleum Engineers to Manage Uncertainty. Paper
SPE 103339 presented at the SPE Annual Technical Conference and Exhibition, San
Antonio, Texas, 24 - 27 September.
Welsh, M.B., Begg, S.H., and
Bratvold, R.B. 2006. Correcting Common Errors in Probabilistic Evaluations:
Efficacy of Debiasing. Paper SPE 102188 presented at the SPE Annual Technical
Conference and Exhibit, San Antonio.
Yao, Y., Begg, S.H., Bratvold, R.B.,
Behrenbruch, P., and van der Hoek, J. 2006. Case Studies for Comparison of
Different Real Option Approaches. Paper SPE 101031 presented at the SPE Asia
Pacific Oil and Gas Conference and Exhibition, Adelaide, Australia, September
11 – 13.
Bratvold, R.B., Laughton, D., Enloe,
T., and Begg, S.H. 2005. A Critical Comparison of Real Option Valuation
Methods: Assumptions, Applicability, Mechanics, and Recommendations. Paper SPE
97011 presented at the SPE Annual Technical Conference and Exhibit, Dallas, TX,
9 - 12 October.
Welsh, M.B., Bratvold, R.B., and
Begg, S.H. 2005. Cognitive Biases in the Petroleum Industry: Impact and
Remediation. Paper SPE 96423 presented at the SPE Annual Technical Conference
and Exhibit, Dallas, TX, 9 - 12 October.
Begg, S.H., Bratvold, R.B., and
Campbell, J.M. 2004. Abandonment Decision and the Value of Flexibility. Paper
SPE 91131 presented at the SPE Annual Technical Conference and Exhibit,
Houston, TX, September 26 – 29.
Laughton, D.G., Begg, S.H.,
Bratvold, R.B., and Campbell, J.M. 2004. Development as the Continuation of
Appraisal by Other Means. Paper SPE 90155 presented at the SPE Annual Technical
Conference and Exhibit, Houston, TX, Sept. 26 – 29.
Welsh, M.B., Begg, S.H., Bratvold,
R.B., and Lee, M.D. 2004. Problems with the Elicitation of Uncertainty. Paper
SPE 90338 presented at the SPE Annual Technical Conference and Exhibit,
Houston, TX, Sept. 26 – 29.
Begg, S.H., Bratvold, R.B., and
Campbell, J.F. 2003a. Decision Making under Uncertainty. Paper SPE June
presented at the The 7th International Forum on Reservoir Simulation, Buhl/Baden-Baden,
Germany, June.
Begg, S.H., Bratvold, R.B., and
Campbell, J.F. 2003b. Shrinks or Quants: Who will improve decision-making.
Paper SPE 84238 presented at the SPE Annual Technical Conference and
Exhibition, Denver, CO, 5 – 8 October
Bratvold, R.B., Begg, S.H., and
Campbell, J.F. 2003. Even Optimists Should Optimize. Paper SPE 84329 presented
at the SPE Annual Technical Conference and Exhibition, Denver, CO, 5 – 8
October
Campbell, J.F., Bratvold, R.B., and
Begg, S.H. 2003 Portfolio Optimization: Living Up to Expectations. Paper SPE
82005 presented at the SPE Hydrocarbon Economics and Evaluation Symposium,
Dallas, TX, 5 - 8 April
Laughton, D.G., Begg, S.H.,
Bratvold, R.B., Campbell, J.F., and Deutsch, C.V. 2003 The Joint Management of
Appraisal, Development and Production in a Two-block Offshore Oil Field: A Real
Options Analysis. Paper SPE 82035 presented at the SPE Hydrocarbon Economics
and Evaluation Symposium, Dallas, TX, 5 - 8 April
Begg, S. and Bratvold, R. 2002. The
Value of Flexibility in Managing Uncertainty in Oil and Gas Investments. Paper
SPE 77586 presented at the SPE Annual Technical Conference and Exhibition, San
Antonio, Texas, 29 September - 02 October.
Bratvold, R.B., Begg, S.H., and
Campbell, J.M. 2002. Would You Know a Good Decision if You Saw One? Paper SPE
77509 presented at the SPE Annual Technical Conference and Exhibition, San
Antonio, TX, Sept. 29 – Oct. 2.
Begg, S.H., Bratvold, R.B., and
Campbell, J.M. 2001. Improving Investment Decisions using A Stochastic
Integrated Asset Model. Paper SPE 71414 presented at the SPE Annual Technical
Conference and Exhibition, New Orleans, LA, 30 September–3 October.
Maksimov, M.M., Galushko, V.V.,
Kutcherov, A.B., Surguchev, L.M., and Bratvold, R.B. 1993. Parallel Nested
Factorization Algorithms. Paper SPE 25242 presented at the The 12th SPE
Symposium on Reservoir Simulation, New Orleans, LA, 28 February - 3 March.
Surguchev, L.M., Zolothukin, A.B.,
and Bratvold, R.B. 1992. Reservoir Characterization and Modeling Supported by
Expert Knowledge System. Paper SPE 24279 presented at the SPE European
Petroleum Computer Conference, Stavanger, Norway, 25-27 May .
Bratvold,
R.B., Horne, R.N., and Rugland, T. 1990. Application of Advanced Workstations to
Reservoir Simulation. Paper SPE 20364 presented at the SPE Petroleum Computer
Conference, Denver, CO, 25-28 June.
Bratvold, R.B. and Larsen, L. 1989
Effects of Linear Boundaries on Pressure-Transient Injection and Falloff Data.
Paper SPE 19830 presented at the SPE Annual Technical Conference and
Exhibition, San Antonio. Texas, 8 - 11 October.
Invited & Keynote
Presentations
Invited presentation on "Decision-Making
in Exploration & Production: The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly?" NPF Solstrand
Seminar on Oil and Economics 17 September, 2009.
Invited presentation on "Reserves
Estimation – What Can we Learn from Decision Analysis?" IQPC – Global
Reserves Summit, London, UK, 9-10 September, 2008.
Invited presentation on "Value
of Information Demonstration," SPE ATW – Closed-Loop Reservoir Management,
Bruges, Belgium, 23-26 June, 2008.
Invited presentation on "Decision
Making in the Oil & Gas Industry – From Blissful Ignorance to Uncertainty
Induced Confusion." INFORMS Southwest Regional Meeting – Texas A&M,
College Station, TX, 19 April, 2008.
Invited presentation on "Decision
Making in the Oil & Gas Industry – From Blissful Ignorance to Uncertainty
Induced Confusion." Norwegian Academy of Technological Sciences, Stavanger, Norway, 1 November,
2007.
Invited presentation on "
Decision Making in the Oil & Gas Industry – From Blissful Ignorance to
Uncertainty Induced Confusion." Department of Petroleum Engineering,
Stanford University, 15 November 2007.
Invited presentation on "Would
You Know a Good Decision if You Saw One?" NPF Solstrand Seminar on Oil and
Economics 20 September, 2007.
Invited presentation on "I
Would Rather be Vaguely Right that Precisely Wrong – A Decision Focused
Approach to Evaluating oil & Gas Investments." NPD 29 May, 2007.
Invited presentation on "I
would rather be vaguely right than precisely wrong: A new approach to
evaluating oil and gas investment decisions.” SPE Brunei Section August 2005.
Invited presentation on “Psychology
in Decision-Making” to first meeting of newly re-constructed
Santos Management Board, 2004.
Invited presentation on
“Probabilistic Reserves” to Australian Journal of Mining (AJM) “Reserve
Accounting and Reporting” technical conference, Perth, 2004.
Distinguished Lecturer for Society of Petroleum
Engineers (SPE) – presented at ~30 locations around the world, 2003/04.
Invited presentation on “Decision
Making under Uncertainty” at the “7th International Forum on
Reservoir Simulation”, Buhl/Baden-Baden, Germany, 2003
Invited presentation on “Real
Option Valuation” at the “Strategic Analysis for Technology Commercialisation”,
Education Centre for Information & Commercialisation, University of
Adelaide, 2002
Panelist SPE “Integrated Modeling for
Asset Management”, Yokohama, 2000
Invited presentation on “Managing
Reservoir Uncertainty and Risk” at HARC (Houston Advanced Research Center)
Geotechnology Research Institute, 1999
Keynote speaker on
“Uncertainty Modeling” at Chevron Technology Conference, La Habra, CA 1998
Distinguished Lecturer for Society of Petroleum
Engineers (SPE) – presented at ~20 locations around the world, 1997/98
Invited speaker on “High-Performance
Computing in Oil & Gas” at IBM’s Worldwide Technology Conference, La Hulpe,
Belgium, 1992
Conference Presentations
with no written paper, or only a published abstract
Bratvold,
R.B.,
Rajaieyamchee, M.A.,
"Bayesian Decision Networks for Drilling Decision Support," Institute
for Operational Research and Management Science (INFORMS) Annual Meeting, San
Diego, 2009
Welsh, M.B., Begg, S.H., and Bratvold, R.N.,
“Intuition and Bias in Risk Assessment: Impact and
Remediation”, accepted for AAPG Annual Conference, Paper # 106392,
Perth, 2006
Bratvold,
R.B.,
Aristeguieta, O., Begg, S.H., "Improving oil and gas business performance
through project portfolio optimization", Institute for Operational
Research and Management Science (INFORMS) Annual Meeting, San Francisco, 2005
Begg, S.H. and Bratvold, R.B., “Would You Know a Good Decision if You Saw
One?” , AAPG Annual Conference, Paper # 99490, Paris, 2005
Bratvold,
R.B.
and Begg, S.H., “I Would Rather
be Vaguely Right than Precisely Wrong”, AAPG
Annual Conference, Paper # 99491, Paris,
2005
Aristeguieta, O., Begg, S.H., and Bratvold, R.B., "Improving oil and gas business performance
through project portfolio optimization" presented at the 6th
International Conference on Optimization: Techniques and Applications,
Ballarat, Australia, Dec. 2004